New Japan Cup Predictions

It’s that time of year when New Japan Pro Wrestling launches its single-elimination tournament: New Japan Cup.

During the upcoming anniversary show on March 4, two matches will be the official kickoff of the annual New Japan Cup. The show will be headlined by IWGP Jr. Heavyweight Champion El Desperado challenging for the Heavyweight and Intercontinental Championship against Kota Ibushi. On the undercard, Satoshi Kojima will go one on one with Jeff Cobb while Cobb’s stablemate The Great O’Khan will face the former Double Champion Tetsuya Naito.

Rather than doing bracketology, let’s just look at the overall picture of who should win and challenge the Double Champion (we can assume Ibushi is going to retain) at Sakura Genesis and who should be avoided at all costs.

AVOID

Tetsuya Naito

I’m a huge fan of Naito, but we have seen him against Ibushi twice already this year for both titles and just this week for the Intercontinental Title so we don’t need this matchup anymore. Last year’s trilogy of Naito and Evil was already too long.

SANADA

The match being made immediately after Wrestle Kingdom, I disagreed with. SANADA and Ibushi need to be far apart from each other, like Bret and Shawn in 1997, until the biggest shows come around. Save this for Wrestle Kingdom 2022 where SANADA needs to finally climb the mountain and do it over Ibushi. Then, you have a new crop of main eventers.

Hiroshi Tanahashi

The man is great, but you can clearly see he is hurting. The hard-hitting style of the NEVER division is a fresh idea. It seemed for a bit that Tanahashi was beginning his way down the card to join Tenzan, Nagata and the Young Lions on the opening matches. If he has one more run left, not now, not yet.

WHO HAS A SHOT

Kazuchika Okada

Like Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, whenever this man is involved in the championship picture, he’s the favorite. He has already done the promo “promising victory,” so we’ll see where that goes. He fresh off a win in a long storyline with Evil. If the winner of the tournament was getting a shot in June at Dominion, then I’d be happy to say give it to Okada. But with this being a smaller April show, don’t let Okada win this. Let the match at Dominion happen naturally rather than force it.

KENTA

He is finally off the storyline with Jon Moxley and needs something else to do. While winning the New Japan Cup and challenging for the title would take him away from the LA Dojo, it would be another person in the main event scene. KENTA once again would become the most hated man in NJPW.

WHO SHOULD WIN

Taichi

Something about this recent storyline with him going nuts upon losing the “Iron Fingers” was great. His character was missing an edge and him winning the New Japan Cup could be the start of him moving up the card, too. He would need to put on great performances across the board and just not with the already hard workers like Ishii, Goto, Okada, etc. There is nothing wrong with him taking this, but don’t put the belts on him just yet.

Minoru Suzuki

Where the hell has he been all year? Since the loss of the NEVER title to Shingo at Summer Struggle, outside of the G1, he has disappeared. With his return to the New Japan Cup, he should run wild and remind everyone why he’s the baddest man on the planet. He can take the Cup and become even more disgruntled than what he already was. Suzuki needs a run with the title before his time comes to hang up the boots.

Will Ospreay

Let’s be honest, the United Empire has not gotten off to a great start. The group collectively went 0-3 at Wrestle Kingdom and Great O’Khan has had lackluster performances in major matches while Ospreay and Cobb are fresh off a loss to Tenzan and Kojima at Castle Attack. The only way for the group to get an immediate impact and become an overnight threat is if Ospreay wins the New Japan Cup and challenges Ibushi. Keep in mind that he has one win over “The Golden Star” back at Wrestle Kingdom 2019.

Shingo Takagi

He went into the Jr. division upon his arrival, won the Jr. Tag Titles, transitioned to the NEVER division and took both the 6-man and the Core titles. It’s time for him to fully transform into the heavyweight he is and give another layer of excellent performances to the main event scene. “The Dragon” against the “The Golden Star” for the first IWGP World Heavyweight Championship would be an amazing match at Sakura Genesis.

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

If I were booking right now and with everything going on with the “forbidden door”, I’d pick Tama Tonga to win. If you listen to his Tama’s Island podcast, he has been very vocal of The Elite in AEW. If he wins the New Japan Cup and challenges Ibushi, delay the title match to a later date and have him invade AEW Dynamite and completely destroy Kenny Omega. It would be a good cross-promotional battle of The Elite against the current day Bullet Club and Tama is one of the original OG’s. The attack on Kenny would get under Ibushi’s skin and add another level to the title match for that later date. If I’m correct, Tama lives in Florida, so outside of the quarantining he’d have to do traveling between the countries, it wouldn’t be that farfetched. If I had to put money down right now on the one man that’ll likely walk away the winner of the New Japan Cup, then just change the name of the tournament to the New “Jay Pan” Cup.

“Switchblade” Jay White is the heavy favorite and can continue his storyline with Ibushi from both Power Struggle, where he won Ibushi’s briefcase, and Wrestle Kingdom, where Ibushi claimed both titles on the final night in an amazing match. While I didn’t understand the whole “I’m done” storyline that only kept him out for a month, White is already established and ready to go into the main event spot.

This is a perfect time to move someone up into that main level and NJPW should take advantage of it and stop giving us the same major matches during these big shows. Gedo is a great booker, but I see why Tony Khan beat him in the Wrestling Observer Newsletter Awards. It’s time for some new blood and Kota Ibushi is the perfect champion to welcome these fresh challenger.