AEW Double or Nothing 2023 Predictions

In this edition of The Wrestling Estate roundtable, we share our predictions for AEW Double or Nothing 2023, which airs live from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. on Sunday, May 28.

How Do You Rate the Build?

Steven Jackson

Five out of 10 for me. Some of the build-up has been great while other build-ups to the show have been lacklustre. Nowhere near as good as previous years sadly.

Curt Lemon

To be honest the only match I heard about was the main event, and that was only because of how poorly Jungle Boy was received during his UK trip. Not exactly a vote of confidence for a No. 1 contender to your World title.

Russ Good

I felt like the build to Double or Nothing has been pretty good! With a quarterly pay-per-view model, I think AEW fans should have different expectations for how the shows are built. The WWE model, which is the one most of us are most familiar with, is fine when you only need to build a match for four weeks or so. But when there’s three months and change between the big four shows, there has to be a mix of long-term storytelling alongside an aggressive build for the final few weeks before the show. Overall, I’m looking forward to all three big shows this weekend, but Double or Nothing’s build gets a solid 7 from me.

Jack Goodwillie

AEW has traditionally been pretty solid at building to pay-per-views, particularly when there’s a focus on two or three big matches. However, this is a four out of 10 build for me. The Four Pillars storylines feels shoehorned and forced. Chris Jericho vs. Adam Cole has been very paint-by-numbers. Blackpool Combat Club and The Elite has been pretty uneven and I feel like the Don Callis turn should have been bigger than it was.

There’s otherwise not a ton of intrigue in the mid card. Everything is just kind of there. Last year’s card and build was far superior.

John Corrigan

The only intrigue about AEW right now is whether CM Punk is coming back.

What Will Be the Post-Show Narrative?

Steven Jackson

I doubt it’ll quell the noise related to CM Punk, that’s just going to continue regardless. I see the narrative being that MJF is the true pillar of AEW and something involving The Elite.

Curt Lemon

I think the show will be long and exhausting and at the end of the night Tony Khan will have some sort of surprise, be it a debut or a return. He is a one trick pony and that’s his way to wrap up big events.

Russ Good

The narrative coming out of Double or Nothing depends a lot on what happens in the main event. If the entire internet is right and Max retains, then the focus is likely going to be on the Blackpool Combat Club’s rivalry with The Elite, which shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon. If Maxwell Jacob Friedman were to drop the title, unlikely as that may be, I think all four pillars would be affected, and that could be the catalyst for a number of different storylines. Something like that would dominate fan booking for a while.

As for the C.M. Punk of it all, that’s going to be a thorn in Tony Khan’s side from here until forever. The announcement of Collision’s first show being in Chicago all but guarantees the attendance of one Second City Saint, for better or for worse. Some fans will hate that he’s back, while I assume many in attendance on June 17th will be cheering their brains out when the static breaks and Cult of Personality hits. Both Punk and Tony will be under a microscope for every decision, match, and backstage rumor that involves the Punker, and I can’t imagine any scenario where any match result or revelation at Double or Nothing changes that.

JackGoodwillie

I imagine it taking a mammoth overachievemnt of a show to completely overcome the melodrama the company has become wrapped up in. The lackluster build only makes this hill steeper. I do think there will be matches that overperform, however (more on that later).

But particularly with the Collision news coming such close proximity to the show, the buzz seems to be more on CM Punk’s grand return than what is one of AEW’s biggest shows of the year.

John Corrigan

It’ll be the same narrative as always: super long event, everybody worked hard, some Meltzer-approved matches, but nothing you’ll remember in a month. CM Punk will remain the talk of Twitter.

Most Anticipated Match?

Steven Jackson

The four-way for the AEW World Championship. But I’m also worried that four-way matches are really difficult to pull off so I hope we can get something special from it (not meaning Darby Allin almost kills himself for the fans!)

Curt Lemon

FTR Vs Lethal and Jarrett. Double J is the hottest heel in the company, there is no argument. No one “loves to boo” Jeff Jarrett, like they do with MJF. They just boo him because he’s great at his job (ain’t he great). FTR is the best team in the business today. I hope they give them at least 15 minutes, but on a (at least) 9 match card that might be too long.

Russ Good

I think I might actually be most excited for the Adam Cole versus Chris Jericho match after that beating on last week’s Dynamite. They’ve done great work building what could have been a throwaway return feud, and I feel like both guys might just decide to try and out-anarchy the Anarchy in the Arena match.

Jack Goodwillie

I alluded to there being matches that will overperform. While it’s becoming trendy to put over Jeff Jarrett’s AEW run thus far, I am in the camp that has loved what he’s brought. Jeff seems like a guy who doesn’t take himself too seriously for all he’s accomplished, and the light comedy has been a nice touch.

I’m also curious to see how AEW handles Wardlow one year after his shining moment at Double or Nothing 2022. Christian Cage is seemingly AEW’s fixer, though Jungle Boy doesn’t seem to be too much better off than he was outside of a light name change. Neverthless, from a strict matchmaking standpoint, it’s good matchmaking to put these two together and there are plenty of ways AEW can go here.

John Corrigan

FTR vs. Jeff Jarrett and Jay Lethal will probably steal the show. I’m over all the wacky, bloodbath, hardcore matches that AEW has a steady diet of. Anarchy in the Arena was fun the first time, but should you really go back to that well on an annual basis?

MJF or the Field? Does Anyone Have a Chance?

Steven Jackson

Yes. Darby Allin can win as I’m a HUGE Darby Allin fan! But then maybe something could happen with Sting? Who knows!?

Curt Lemon

That title hasn’t exactly been stable. 9 champions in the 3 years of the company’s existence. Roman Reigns has nearly held his championship for that long himself. At this time I’m pretty sure Jon Moxley is a 47 time champion. It wouldn’t surprise me if they put it on someone else (none of the challengers feel like legitimate main eventers yet) but hopefully MJF retains. Also hopefully this match opens the show because I don’t think the crowd will be into it at the end of the night.

Russ Good

YES. HAHAHA YES. My sicko brain has embraced the chaos, and I am all for Sammy Guevara taking the belt off Max. Given the kinda tepid response to Jack Perry lately, I also wouldn’t be mad at a heel turn for the former boy of the jungle. Spin the pillars on their heels by making Sammy a face, Jack a bad guy, and Darby Allin the unpredictable tweener middleman.

Realistic? Possibly not. But it would be awesome, and unexpected, and send all four pillars spinning in unpredictable ways, maybe for the better.

Jack Goodwillie

Nope. MJF rolls. We’ve apoken ad nauseum this week about how forced this match feels, and nobody really feels better off. Be mindful, however, that there WILL be plenty of well-executed false finishes that will attempt to suspend disbelief like a good match should. But that’s ultimately all this match, as Jack Perry and Sammy Guevara are not ready for this kind of opportunity while Darby Allin could have used more of the shine and would have been a more passable contender with added focus.

John Corrigan

Nope. MJF retains, as he should. That doesn’t mean Darby shouldn’t win the big one someday, but he needs a proper build to that rather than sharing the spotlight with Sammy and Jungle Jackass.

The Blackpool Combat Club or The Elite?

Steven Jackson

After reforming I see the winners as The Elite and this being the last hurrah of the BCC.

Curt Lemon

What a waste of the great professional wrestler in the world today, Bryan Danielson. The Elite is the same story we have heard since the inception of the company, how can we miss them if it feels like they have never gone away? I know they’ve broken up and been suspended, but in the rushed timelines of AEW it doesn’t feel like it. Everything blends together in this company and maybe that’s my fault for not being a religious supporter and viewer. BCC has lost all steam and feels completely lost without Regal. That being said, I hope BCC wins, and these factions (2 of the seemingly 100 factions in AEW) disband.

Russ Good

Why, I covered this (and all the matches on the Double or Nothing card) on The Wrestling Estate’s AEW Double or Nothing Preview! Here’s a preview of that preview…a pre-preview, if you will:

“Bryan Danielson seemed to be relegated to a commentary role lately, but Jon Moxley, Claudio Castignoli, and Wheeler Yuta are gonna need him to balance things out against the Young Bucks, a recently-betrayed Kenny Omega, and “Hangman” Adam Page. The only other solution I can see is the vile Don Callis replacing Danielson with a young, confused Konosuke Takeshita as a jab at Omega. If that’s the case, maybe BCC goes over, but my money is still on the Elite.

Either outcome is okay by me, as we’re gonna get a great match regardless. These Anarchy matches are some of the best original ideas AEW has come up with, and they always feature a bunch of memorable spots. With this group of talent on both sides, there’s bound to be some really great wrestling in the middle of the mayhem as well. And the rivalry is bound to continue, as the story they’ve been telling seems to barely be reaching a middle – especially with Blood and Guts looming.”

Jack Goodwillie

Like I said, this storyline has seen its ups and downs. I am also critical of there having to be one token faction war on each of these cards. Better believe there will be one in Wembley.

That said, this match will deliver. Even if this kind of match isn’t your cup of tea, people will be talking about it one way or the other. Jon Moxley and Kenny Omega are no stranger to pushing the envelope in their matches and they’re gonna give the fans something to see. I’m thinking The Elite ultimately stand tall but this likely won’t be the only match these factions have.