AEW Forbidden Door 2023 Predictions

In this week’s roundtable, our writers give some predictions for AEW Forbidden Door 2023, a show sure to be one of the company’s biggest to date.

Will MJF show up in Toronto to face Hiroshi Tanahashi?

Steven Jackson

I hope so. Given each man’s contrasting styles, as well as their personalities, it’d be a fantastic match to see take place.

Russ Good

My hope is that MJF follows through on his threat to no-show against Tanahashi, leaving the door open for the recently-returned “real AEW champion” to get the match he was scheduled for at last year’s Forbidden Door show. CM Punk and KENTA have teased a match, but nothing is set in stone as of this writing and Forbidden Door is only days away. While I believe that both Max or the Punker could have a great match with the legendary Tanahashi, a Punk win would go a long way towards establishing his belt as the legitimate one, which could be parlayed into Punk and Friedman resuming their rivalry.

Harvey Garcia

They advertised the match. AEW cards have integrity and have only ever changed last-minute due to injury. He’ll be there.

Jack Goodwillie

Ultimately, the idea of CM Punk stepping in to fill MJF’s shoes against the man he was supposed to face at least year’s crossover show seems too good to pass up, no? This, combined with my worry over Tanahashi, 46, being able to carry MJF leads me to believe this could be an extended angle as much as it is a match. For better or worse though, I think smart money is on MJF showing up in Toronto for something. Whether that “something” is a match with “Ace” remains to be seen.

Can AEW capitalize on the Forbidden Door momentum?

Steven Jackson

It’s really difficult because AEW has been all over the place quite a bit. However, as Eddie Kingston is appearing in the G1 Climax and we’ve got the debut of Collision, there’s opportunity for AEW to make this momentum from NJPW really mean something. Only time will tell though.

Russ Good

Aside from my bit of fantasy booking between Max and Punk, I don’t know that the point of these crossover shows is to build –I feel like they’re positioned more as a showcase, letting the stars of both AEW and NJPW shine on a big stage and, possibly, in front of a new audience. If that works, both companies should get some hype out of the Forbidden Door PPV. Whether or not AEW will capitalize depends on what they do with this year’s version of the show. If it’s just good matches for the sake of good matches, it’ll be a fun watch but will have little impact on the upcoming All In and All Out shows. But, if Tony Khan decides to use Forbidden Door as a way to book some dream matches at those important events, then maybe they can grow because of this weekend’s crossover.

Harvey Garcia

AEW has a monumental All In event in two months, likely to feature talent from various other promotions, in the spirit of the original 2018 event. I expect momentum, if not outright rivalries, involving top NJPW talent to carry over from Forbidden Door to All In. AEW also has a brand new weekly program in Collision, and regardless of the CM Punk stigma, the show has been acclaimed production and format-wise. Capitalizing on post-Forbidden Door momentum is pretty much guaranteed, but they will pace themselves of course.

Jack Goodwillie

Can is the operative word here. Can AEW capitalize on the inevitable Forbidden Door momentum? They can. It’s entirely possible. Will they? Like pretty much anything in wrestling, it depends (in this case on the follow through). As I’ve written in the past, the idea of Tony Khan being a great booker is, to this point, unfounded, but the man can certainly get matches in the ring people want to see. As far as a main event and co-main event go, Forbidden Door is going to be a tough act to follow and one of the downsides to featuring another company’s talent so prominently is their availability. Will Ospreay and Kazuchika Okada, as incredible as they are, are NJPW talents first, not to mention The G1 Climax is coming up. What will their availability be like? The big key for AEW will be to continue to highlight their own talent who shine brightest on this show. It may not be the biggest names, either. Willow Nightingale, for instance, has come across really well virtually every time she’s been on television as of late, so for AEW, the key is simple: don’t stop. When a talent is on an upward trajectory

Thoughts on Jungle Boy challenging for the IWGP World Championship?

Steven Jackson

It’s a great opportunity for Jungle Boy to challenge for the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship. Sanada is a fantastic wrestler, so it’ll definitely be a unique match to say the least.

Russ Good

I never love when a guy who just lost a championship match is immediately thrust into another championship match. AEW started out as the “records matter” show, but that has since been abandoned and it’s become wrestling as American fans expect, despite the very different in-ring product. I’m hoping for a good match and some development in the Jungle Hook experience, as Jack Perry insisted on Hook being in his corner for this one. Whether that means Hook turns, or (more interestingly) Perry goes bad, it will add another good rivalry for the company, and one between two of their more popular rising stars.

Harvey Garcia

A lot of the heat has been on Jack Perry for not being big enough for this spot, but I think it goes both ways. I was intrigued by SANADA’s open challenge only because I wanted a big name to take it. But I only wanted a big name because I don’t think SANADA is one. The IWGP Heavyweight belt used to be so revered. That’s what I’m thinking.

Jack Goodwillie

I think Harvey’s onto something in that this spot feels a little oversized for both wrestlers. Then again, how big is this spot really? Sure, it’s the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship, but the AEW World Championship is also not in an optimal spot on the show. I wouldn’t go as far as to say it’s a two-match show, but all eyes are on this double main event. That said, I think this is somewhat of a “show-me” match for each guy. Hook’s being at ringside to “cheer on” Perry seems a little weird and out of character, so I wonder there are going to be any post-match shenanigans at play. As for SANADA, the need for NJPW to get legitimate new guys into the mix at the main event level is very real. Father Time caught Tanahashi and Naito quickly, so there is definitely a desperation to find new Japanese stars to hold down the fort. SANADA checks a lot of boxes, but is he on the level of an Okada? This is the unfortunate bar at the top level of New Japan, and until someone rises to the occasion, champions like SANADA will continue to be a tough sell.  

Who Wins? Kenny Omega or Will Ospreay?

Steven Jackson

Part of me thinks it’ll be Ospreay so we get the rubber match at All In. But part of me thinks it could be Kenny Omega as it’s AEW’s PPV debut in Canada. Weighting each up, I’m going to go with Kenny Omega.

Russ Good

Omega has a lot on his mind right now. The return of the guy who tried to burn the company down, the continued rivalry between The Elite and the Blackpool Combat Club, welcoming “Hangman” Adam Page back into the fold, and the betrayal of Don Callis and his new protege Konosuke Takeshita have all been weighing on The Cleaner’s mind. He’s not focused and that can easily lead to distraction. Ospreay has none of that to worry about. In fact, he is singularly focused on avenging his loss in that stellar match at Wrestle Kingdom 17 earlier this year. If Ospreay can get the victory on Sunday he has a pretty compelling reason to want a rubber match for 2023 bragging rights. And what better place than Wembley for Omega versus Ospreay 3?

Harvey Garcia

In Omega’s own words to Ospreay: 364 days a year, Ospreay is the better wrestler. Well, Omega’s 1 day is up. His focus is barely on the belt, anyway.

Jack Goodwillie

Ospreay. Everything seems to be pointing Will’s way, and it’s probably in the best interest of both promotions to get as many matches out of these two guys as they can. For that to happen, Will needs to get one over on Kenny, and that’s what I think we’ll see on Sunday.  

Who Wins? Kazuchika Okada or Bryan Danielson?

Steven Jackson

I really want it to be Bryan Danielson. Bryan is one of the greatest wrestlers to ever lace up a pair of boots. And while the same can be said for Kazuchika Okada, the fanboy in me is all about the American Dragon!

Russ Good

Typically, one would think that if there are two main event dream matches in a crossover event like Forbidden Door, each company involved would have one victory and one defeat. With Will Ospreay looking like the favorite in his match with Kenny Omega, that leaves Danielson looking like the winner in the Okada match. But is he? Okada had that multi-man match at last year’s show for the IWGP World Heavyweight Championship, but that was more of a showcase – this match pits him one-on-one against one of the best professional wrestlers in the world in Bryan Danielson, a very unique beast. And Danielson himself missed that show entirely with an injury that kept him out of the rumored Zack Sabre Jr. grapple-off. That being said, I think Okada comes out on top. It’s hard to believe that NJPW would get both wins, but if Ospreay is participating in AEW’s All In show then maybe Uncle Tony is alright with his boys eating a few pinfalls in the main events in Toronto. Having Okada stand tall over the de facto trainer of the BCC would be a cool visual, especially since the other members of the club are likely to get involved, and if New Japan is open to it maybe Okada could participate in London as well.

Harvey Garcia

Most people probably pick Okada easily. (e.g. He’s the face of NJPW, he’s making his AEW singles debut — he’s Okada.) But until last month, Danielson has lost every PPV match he’s had in AEW since November 2021. It takes one win against the Rainmaker to erase all that, and coming off a PPV win is the best time to do it. But that’s not a prediction, that’s me just musing. This is a match I never thought I’d get; I’m just going to sit back and enjoy.

Jack Goodwillie

This is a conundrum for me, because I’m basing it off my Ospreay pick. If Ospreay is to beat Omega, the AEW guy, Danielson, beating the NJPW guy, Okada, seems to make the most sense. However, Ospreay is also a heel. So are we to believe that both heels are going to come away victorious in these matches? Actually, yes. For one, I don’t the think babyface/heel divide is going to be comparable to what we’ll likely get in Ospreay/Omega. While Danielson is a heel, and a good one at that, he has the Adam Cole problem where he is such a painfully nice guy that people will always find something to like about him. I also think the BCC is going to fall to The Elite earlier in the night, so if that’s the case, it might make sense for Danielson’s stable going 1-1 themselves to save some face. Lastly, Tony Khan may be a pushover in press conferences, but the same can’t be said for his negotiation skills. I am sure a split in the big matches came part and parcel with the deal for these shows. Still, take this pick with a grain of salt, as it’s always tough to imagine anyone beating a guy like Okada clean in the ring, even if his name is “The American Dragon.”  

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